Classic examples of why analysis of Thai politics is a fool’s pursuit

The latest political developments in Thailand might go some way to explaining why I try to avoid providing analysis of the politics behind who is doing what, with whom, to whom, why and how.

Having fully recovered (physically, if not mentally) from his exciting turn as the digger in Whac-A-Mole, Sondhi ‘the mark’ Limthongkul refused to lash out at almost everybody and refused to accuse almost all parties of being involved in the plot to kill him and, well, just about everybody.

The Thai press has been abuzz with rumours, innuendo, accusation and explanation – nearly all of it couched in the sort of mysterious and indirect references Thais seem to think both makes for more scintillating intrigue and eliminates any risk of being held accountable for dangerous statements.

Put your crayons away, political cartoons need watercolours

Allegations seemingly aimed more at the military and at members of the “Bangkok elite” than at erstwhile political enemies have been dribbling out for several days.

The latest developments would seem to make a mockery of past political analyses in which the PAD “Yellow Shirts” – led by Sondhi and backed by Chinese-Thai merchants, the urban middle classes, the “Bangkok elite” and retired military – battled the UDD “Red Shirts” – a mix of vested commercial interests, Marxists,  ’republicans’ and a large grassroots movement seeking representation, backed by Thaksin Shinawatra and supported by the majority of rural Thais in Central, North and Northeast Thailand.

Several people (and/or their representatives), most of whom had ‘not’ been directly accused of doing anything wrong, began refuting in the strongest possible terms (and sometimes stronger, if that makes sense), all of the allegations not made against them.

Blames rogue military elements

Depending on what you read and depending on the words of Sondhi or  his representatives, Sondhi either reckons the head of the Army, General Anupong Paochinda, did not play a role in the 17 April attack on Sondhi’s car, or did. Depending.

Sondhi reckons he had a clear view of the men who attacked his car. He says the way they held their weapons and stood in the back of the pickup trucks was clear evidence that they were experienced military men.

‘the mark’ says “Mark” could also be a ‘mark’

Sondhi has yet to offer any explaination why, if the attack involved 10 “highly trained” men in 4 pickup trucks spending 5 minutes firing 200 rounds from “war weapons” (M-16, AK-47, HK33 and M-79/M-203 grenade launcher), he is still alive. For some reason, these military experts failed to advance on his vehicle, neutralize the driver and bodyguard(s), eyeball their target, and then ensure he was dead, all of which would be basic protocol for such an operation.

Of course, being Thailand, the generally-accepted explanation for Sondhi’s miraculous escape from certain death – or even serious injury – is the magical power of the quasi-Buddhist amulets he would have been wearing.

On the other hand, perhaps this supports Sondhi’s further claim that the attack was intended as a warning, not just to him, but to the other “Mark” – PM Abhisit Vejjajiva – as well as to all leaders of mass movements, and to Thais in general.

Without apparent reason, non-parties refute unalleged uninvolvement

Another interesting character to surface in the morbidly moralizing media morass is Thanpuying (loosely, “lady”) Viraya Javakul. Thanpuing Viraya is chairwoman of the Foundation for the Boosting of Morale for the Military, Police and Patrol Volunteers under Royal Patronage and has wide-ranging contacts in the military.

Following Sondhi’s earlier vague assertion that “a lady working closely with royalty” had a hand in a plot to “kill him with war weapons”, Thanpuying Viraya apparently felt compelled to state to the media, “Oh, I’m just a lady, without a husband. How could I have thought an influence to do such a thing against Khun Sondhi? I have never had that kind of thinking. I only get involved in charity work.”

In any case, as Thanpuying Viraya was at pains to point out, she inherited so much money that she has no reason to bother with Sondhi and instead divides her time between boosting military morale, charitable works, and receiving advice from HM the King.

Same same but different

I recently came across a Thai newspaper from about twenty years ago. The front page covered the latest exciting political cliffhanger in Thailand. Some (but not all) of the faces were different. Certainly, the political parties and groups had different names. There were no references to shirts and I noted no Rambo-style ambushes.

Otherwise, you could pretty well run the same articles today. The ‘mashup’ of alliances, platforms, allegations and counter-allegations, the ‘flowery’ language, and the overnight developments that are anything but developments (or overnight, it seems) have changed little.

Which gives me an idea for the next political “shirts”…